Policy Pathways for Food and Water Security in the MENA Region

Introductory Essay: Mainstreaming Food and Water Security Amid the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

In the recent years, food and water security have moved from the margins to the mainstream of policy discourse, sitting at the centre of strategic planning for governments worldwide. This shift is particularly pronounced in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), one of the most water-scarce regions globally with water availability about 10 times lower than the global average.^[1] The region accounts for just 1.4 percent of the world’s renewable freshwater resources while hosting approximately 6.3 percent of the global population.^[2]

As a result, countries—especially the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) with no permanent rivers—rely primarily on groundwater and desalination for drinking, industrial, and agricultural purposes. The GCC region produces roughly 40 percent of the world’s desalinated water, operating more than 400 desalination plants along their coasts.^[3] The reliance on desalination for total water supply varies across member states:  61 percent in Qatar, 59 percent in Bahrain, 47 percent  in Kuwait, 41 percent in  United Arab Emirates, 23 percent in Oman, and 18 percent in Saudi Arabia.^[4] Meanwhile, several states—including Syria, Jordan, and Palestine—rely on shared water systems, making transboundary governance and resource management crucial for broader social and economic development.

These geographical and structural constraints of limited freshwater availability and arid climatic conditions are being exacerbated by climate change. The MENA region is also the world’s most vulnerable and disproportionally impacted by climate change,^[5] experiencing accelerated warming, declining precipitation, rising seas, and increasingly frequent and severe droughts. Furthermore, the interlinkages between water and food security are equally critical and coming under increasing strain. Much of the region remains heavily dependent on food imports, exposing it to global market volatility and supply chain disruptions.

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Emerging Risks

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has once again exposed the fragility of critical resource systems in the region. In the context of the current escalating conflict involving the Unites States (US) and Israel, and Iran, attacks have extended beyond the energy assets to include critical water infrastructure, most notably the desalination plants. Iran has accused the US of attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island which affected the water supply for 30 villages in the country.^[6] In retaliation, Iran attacked a water desalination plant near Muharraq in Bahrain—a country that relies on desalination for more than 90 percent of its drinking water requirements.^[7]

Such incidents are not without precedent. In 2019 and 2022,^[8] Yemen’s Houthi launched a series of drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s desalination facilities at Al-Shuqaiq, highlighting the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure in an asymmetric warfare. More recently, Iran has threatened to target desalination infrastructure used by the US and Israel in West Asia in response to any attacks on its own domestic fuel and energy infrastructure—signalling an alarming escalation in the weaponisation of water systems.^[9] Besides military strikes, desalination plants are also vulnerable to contamination of seawater via oil spills and power outages owing to cyberattacks and fuel shortages.

The crisis has had profound impacts on food security as well. The Gulf region imports between 80–90 percent of its food needs, and it is estimated that as much as 70 percent of it passes through the Strait of Hormuz.^[10] Besides regional food availability coming under stress, global agricultural markets are also affected with rising energy prices and the concomitant increase in shipping and transportation costs.

At the same time, the Middle East supplies 30 percent of global fertilisers.^[11] With the waterway under attack,  the shipments have stalled. The price for Middle East granular urea jumped by 40 percent, trading at US$665 per metric ton on 20 March compared to US$485 only a few weeks earlier.^[12] The situation could deteriorate when other countries impose protectionist policies in response—for instance, China is expected to withhold urea and phosphate exports until August 2026—a decision that could cause the regional crisis to spiral into global disruptions.^[13]

Towards Resilience and Regional Cooperation

Despite these challenges, the countries of the Gulf region have made notable progress in overcoming some of the structural limitations. Investments in advanced desalination technologies, decentralised plants, renewable energy integration, controlled-environment agriculture, global food supply partnerships, and strategic food reserves have contributed to a more comprehensive framework for long-term resilience.

The United Arab Emirates stands out with its focus on innovation and international collaborations focusing on water management, sustainable agriculture, and climate adaptation. It will co-host the United Nations Water Conference with Senegal later this year, reflecting a commitment to accelerating action on sustainable water management and advancing collective solutions to both water and food security for the region and the world. This gathering will provide an opportunity for governments, international organisations, and research institutions to exchange ideas and advance solutions pertaining to these pressing challenges—now more critical than ever.

The timing of this volume is therefore particularly significant. While the essays were commissioned before the Hormuz crisis, their relevance has only intensified in the light of recent developments. Together, they highlight the specific experiences, innovations, and policy debates emerging from the region while offering in-depth perspectives on the multifaceted dimensions of water and food security. The contributions explore a wide range of themes, including technological solutions to water scarcity, national security implications, agricultural innovation in arid environments, geopolitical risks affecting food supply chains, the food-water-energy nexus, and country-led policy frameworks aimed at strengthening regional resilience.

It is our hope that this collection helps bridge the gap between academic analysis and policy application, offering valuable perspectives for decision-makers, development practitioners, and researchers alike. By bringing together diverse voices and perspectives from the region, this publication underscores the importance of interdisciplinary research, policy engagement, and international cooperation in addressing issues related to food and water security—one of the most defining security and existential challenges of our time.

Policy Pathways for Food and Water Security in the MENA Region reflects a shared commitment by the Observer Research Foundation Middle East (ORF ME) and Rabdan Security and Defence Institute (RSDI) to foster meaningful dialogue on issues that are shaping the future stability and prosperity of the region. Over the past year, ORF ME and RSDI have collaborated on two well-attended, policy-oriented panel discussions on water and food security, first in Dubai and subsequently in Abu Dhabi. These events brought together regional experts, government stakeholders, and international researchers to examine the strategic implications of resource scarcity, agricultural sustainability, technological innovation, and supply-chain resilience. The strong interest generated by these discussions demonstrated not only the urgency of the subject but also the value of sustained scholarly engagement on the subject.

We extend our gratitude to all the authors who contributed to this compendium for their timely and thoughtful analyses. ORF ME and RSDI will continue to collaborate with the authors and the wider community engaging on food and water security policy to further advance evidence-based policymaking and strengthen sustainable and inclusive resource management in the region.

Read the report here.

Mannat Jaspal is Director and Fellow, Climate and Energy, ORF Middle East, United Arab Emirates.

Kristian P. Alexander is Senior Fellow and Lead Researcher, Rabdan Security and Defense Institute (RSDI), United Arab Emirates.

All views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors, and do not represent the Observer Research Foundation, either in its entirety or its officials and personnel.

Endnotes

[1] “Water Emerges as a Dangerous New War Target in West Asia,” The New Indian Express, March 23, 2026, https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2026/Mar/22/water-emerges-as-a-dangerous-new-war-target-in-west-asia

[2] Salman Zafar, “Water Scarcity in MENA,” EcoMena, March 15, 2026, https://www.ecomena.org/water-scarcity-in-mena/

[3] Mohamed A. Hussein, “How Much of the Gulf’s Water Comes from Desalination Plants?,” Al Jazeera, March 12, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/12/how-much-of-the-gulfs-water-comes-from-desalination-plants

[4] Hussein, “How Much of the Gulf’s Water Comes from Desalination Plants?”

[5] IEA, Climate Resilience is Key to Energy Transitions in the Middle East and North Africa, Paris, IEA, 2023, https://www.iea.org/commentaries/climate-resilience-is-key-to-energy-transitions-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa

[6] Vivian Nereim, “Vital Desalination Plants in Iran and Bahrain Are Attacked,” The New York Times, March 8, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/world/middleeast/desalination-plants-iran-bahrain.html

[7] Hussein, “How Much of the Gulf’s Water Comes from Desalination Plants?”

[8] Michael Christopher Low, “An Iranian Attack on Desalination Plants is a Nightmare for Gulf States,” The Straits Times, March 11, 2026, https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/an-iranian-attack-on-desalination-plants-are-a-nightmare-for-gulf-states

[9] Harikishan Sharma, “After Fuel, Water: With Iran’s Threats to Desalination Plants, Understanding the Gulf Countries’ Dependency,” The Indian Express, March 24, 2026, https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/iran-threats-desalination-plants-gulf-water-dependency-10595489/

[10] Christian Henderson, “Calories, Circulation, and Crisis: The Gulf States and the Regional Food System During Wartime,” Jadaliyya, March 16, 2026, https://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/47248

[11] Prime Sarmiento, “Middle East Crisis Poses Risk to Fertilizer Supply,” China Daily, March 23, 2026, https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202603/23/WS69c08f48a310d6866eb3f301.html

[12] Sarmiento, “Middle East Crisis Poses Risk to Fertilizer Supply”

[13] Josh Linville, “China and Iran Redraw Fertilizer Trade Lines,” StoneX Market Intelligence, February 17, 2026, https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/china-and-iran-redraw-fertilizer-trade-lines/