Chokepoint Checkers: Maritime Security from Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb

The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb are two of the most consequential passages in the world economy: the maritime gateways connecting the Gulf and the Red Sea to global trade. Together they carry not only a significant portion of world’s seaborne oil and LNG — a dual closure could disrupt roughly 30 per cent of global container shipping, a scale of disruption with no historical precedent. The risks are no longer hypothetical: Iran moved to close Hormuz following the conflict that began in February, while the Houthis have continued to threaten traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb. This panel will ask how realistic the risk of a double chokepoint closure is, and what their weaponisation means for security and global supply chains. It will assess the geoeconomic impact of a dual closure, the alternative routes available, and the military capabilities of interested governments in protecting them. Ultimately, it will also analyse how resilient or how dangerously exposed the system that depends on them truly is.