Global
Expert Speak | 16 February, 2026
Convergence of Transitions
The pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 underscores the growing interlinkages of food, health, and urban systems that are increasingly recognized as a defining megatrend for 2026. These systems can be conceptualized as an intricately connected living infrastructure for life and livelihoods in an era of poly- crisis.[1] For the Global South, the complexity is heightened by the interaction of climate change, rapid urbanization, evolving consumption patterns, and emerging health concerns that raise critical questions regarding the sustainability of the business-as-usual developmental pathways. A distinctive feature of the year 2026 is the convergence of several transitions: food systems are being reshaped by regenerative practices and digital technologies, health governance is undergoing reform within a post-pandemic framework, and cities are simultaneously sites of vulnerability and centers of innovation.
Agriculture in 2026 is expected to be reshaped by the ongoing shift from an extractive, yield-maximizing paradigm to a regenerative, resilience-focused approach.
Transition from Extraction to Regeneration
Agriculture in 2026 is expected to be reshaped by the ongoing shift from an extractive, yield-maximizing paradigm to a regenerative, resilience-focused approach that seeks to address the present-day challenges of climate change, soil health degradation, and rising input costs. This trend is reflected in the G20 Agriculture Ministers’ Declarations of Brazil (2024)[2] and South Africa (2025)[3] which emphasize increasing food and nutrition security, climate resilience, and empowerment of smallholders. Impacts of climate change, characterized by rising temperatures, erratic precipitation, and extreme weather events, are now recognized as critical stressors affecting agricultural productivity, food prices, and rural livelihoods across tropical regions, particularly in Africa and South Asia, where smallholders dominate production. The situation has been exacerbated by decades of unsustainable soil and water management practices.[4]
The interaction of climate change, rapid urbanization, evolving consumption patterns, and emerging health concerns raise critical questions regarding the sustainability of business-as-usual developmental pathways.
Climate-smart and precision agriculture have emerged as response mechanisms to these stressors and are expected to occupy a more prominent role in 2026. Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, drones, and AI-driven analytics are being deployed to optimize input use and adapt to microclimatic variation.[5] The global precision farming market is projected to exceed USD 21 billion by 2032, signaling the rapid diffusion of digital technologies into agriculture. This technological transformation, however, may widen disparities between capital-intensive and smallholder systems unless accompanied by inclusive access to finance and digital infrastructure.[6]
The overarching megatrend is climate-resilient diversification, moving from crop monocultures towards polycultures of practices, technologies, and diets.
The rise of regenerative agriculture is associated with practices such as cover cropping, reduced till-age, and carbon-sequestering soil management.[7] Consumer demand for low-carbon food systems, corporate commitments to net-zero supply chains, and policy incentives are driving this shift.[8]
Dietary transitions constitute another prominent dimension. With urbanization and rising incomes, protein-rich and plant-based diets; ranging from lab- grown meat to insect-based proteins, are reshaping markets.[9] These trends, though initially driven by the Global North, are becoming prominent in middle-income economies, contributing to food systems diversification. The overarching megatrend is climate-resilient diversification, moving from crop monocultures towards polycultures of practices, technologies, and diets.[10]
2. Equity In an Emerging Global Health Order
In 2025, the WHO Pandemic Agreement (adopt- ed at the 78th World Health Assembly) set out equity, access, and benefit-sharing as structural principles for pandemic preparedness. Though the treaty’s annexes on financing and pathogen-sharing remain under negotiation, the evidence indicates that the post-COVID health order is being reframed through a Global South lens, prioritizing sovereignty, fairness, and distributed manufacturing.[11] This background signals four megatrends expected to stand out in health systems in 2026. Taken together, these health megatrends indicate a decisive shift from emergency-driven aid dependency to structural resilience rooted in digital transformation.
The first megatrend will be a marked shift towards regional and domestic Health Sovereignty away from external reliance on aid. A substantial 70 percent de- cline in Official Development Assistance in health to Africa between 2021 and 2025 has prompted African nations to move towards domestic resource mobilization and self-reliance.[12] This structural shift will define how Global South nations finance public health over the next decade. The G20 South Africa 2025 health track[13] reinforced this narrative, emphasizing equitable access, local production, and regulatory harmonization across developing regions.
A substantial 70 percent decline in Official Development Assistance in health to Africa between 2021 and 2025 has prompted African nations to move towards domestic resource mobilization and self- reliance. This structural shift will define how Global South nations finance public health over the next decade.
The second megatrend will be the integration of climate and health. With the Belém Health Action Plan (COP30, 2025), health is now formally integrated into the UNFCCC process for the first time.[14] The plan’s focus on climate-resilient health systems, com- munity adaptation, and equity-based governance ac- knowledges that climate is now a public health driver as much as an environmental one. Heatwaves, vector-borne diseases, and food insecurity are interconnected threats that disproportionately affect tropical populations.
The third megatrend will be treating Digital Health as a Global Public Good. In line with the 2023 G20 New Delhi Declaration[15] , the WHO’s Global Digital Health Strategy was extended through 2027, alongside the continuation of the Global Initiative on Digital Health.[16] This demonstrates a growing acceptance that digital infrastructure, in the form of interoperable data systems, telemedicine platforms, and AI-based diagnostics, constitutes a new dimension of public health infrastructure.[17] In the Global South, while digital health can help bridge the traditional institutional gaps, its success will depend on equitable digital access and governance frameworks.
The fourth megatrend will be increased global attention on non-communicable diseases and mental health. The 2025 UN High-Level Meeting set historic 2030 targets: 150 million fewer tobacco users, 150 million additional people with controlled hyper-tension, and 150 million more with access to mental health care.[18] However, the weakening of excise-tax measures and political divisions highlight the challenge of aligning global ambition with domestic policy action.
3. Urbanization: The Next Frontier of Human Adaptation and Innovation
By 2026, nearly 60 per cent of the world’s population will live in cities, driven by urbanization in Africa and Asia. This is a demographic certainty and a sustainability challenge.
Cities remain at the forefront of climate impacts. The estimated financing needs for climate-resilient infrastructure substantially exceed existing allocations.
The following megatrends may unfold.
First, cities remain at the forefront of climate impacts. The estimated financing needs for climate-resilient infrastructure substantially exceed existing al- locations USD 4.5–5.4 trillion annually compared to current financing levels of USD 831 billion[19]. The deficit disproportionately affects low-income cities, resulting in heightened flood risk, heat exposure, and chronic infrastructure gaps.[20]
Second, technological transformation involving AI-enabled mobility, IoT-based water and waste systems, integrated command centres, among other applications, will continue to spread unevenly. The digital divide will widen between well-resourced metropolitan regions and fiscally stressed emerging cities. In India, tier II and III cities may emerge as real estate and industrial hubs,[21] but will continue to face limited planning capacity and persistent fiscal fragility.[22]
Third, urban mobility challenges are intensifying globally. Even as countries invest in green transit systems, the growth of private vehicles in emerging economies may offset these gains.[23] In response, transit-oriented development is expected to gain traction as a planning model that integrates housing, commercial, and transit infrastructure within com- pact, high-density nodes.[24] Simultaneously, cities are adopting circular water systems[25] (e.g., in Urban Local Bodies in Maharashtra, India) and Sponge City models (e.g., Guangzhou in China) to enhance cli- mate resilience.[26]
Fourth, the most intense urban megatrend for 2026 will be the inequality–climate–health nexus. Urban heat island expansion,[27] slum vulnerabilities,[28] and exclusion from adaptive infrastructure are expected to generate new layers of socio-environmental risk. How cities in the Global South address these challenges will depend on how they reimagine infrastructure, finance, and inclusion under climatic and demographic pressure.
The most intense urban megatrend for 2026 will be the inequality–climate–health nexus.
Outlook 2026: Toward An Equitable Transition
The discussions above indicate that 2026 is expected to see the co-evolution of the three intricately linked systems, with increasing convergence of resilience, distributive justice, and innovation shaping the contours of the development trajectory of the Global South. The first transformative pattern is resilient regeneration, involving efforts to restore ecosystems, communities, and institutional trust, marking a paradigm shift from traditional extractive practices. The second transformation is characterized by a more assertive Global South, becoming increasingly visible in the global economic order through regional manufacturing, domestic financing, and south-south cooperation in health, food, and urban innovation. The third transformation is the recognition of technology as a global public good in all three interconnected domains, requiring new governance architectures that prioritize inclusion and human dignity.
Conclusion: Systems Thinking for Complex Futures
The interconnected and uncertain trajectories of agriculture, health, and urbanization converge into complex challenges. Understanding them requires a systems-thinking approach, one that acknowledges feedback loops, cascading risks, and the interdependence of human, ecological, and economic systems.
Seen through this lens, the megatrends shaping the upcoming years are not linear predictions but un- folding networked transitions. In this intricate loop, climate change functions as the meta-driver, digital transformation serves as both catalyst and challenge, while finance and equity run across all these domains. Finally, demographic shifts and consumption patterns sustain the cycle. All these highlight the Global South’s structural dilemma—mobilizing resources without entrenching dependency or asymmetry.
Going forward, stronger Global South cooperation, driven by the post-COP30 momentum and India’s BRICS presidency in 2026, may enable the pooling of knowledge, finance, and technology to jointly advance resilient agriculture, equitable health systems, and sustainable urbanization, reshaping shared development pathways in 2026.
Endnotes
[1] Kate Whiting, “We’re in a ‘polycrisis’ – a historian explains what that means,” World Economic Forum, March 7, 2023, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/03/polycrisis-adam-tooze-historian-explains/.
[2] G20 Agriculture Ministers. 2024. G20 Agriculture Ministers’ Declaration, Chapada dos Guimarães, Brazil, 12–13 September 2024. G20-Brazil Sherpa Track. Available at: https://g7g20-documents.org/database/document/2024-g20-brazil-sherpa-track-agricultural-ministers-ministers-language-g20-agriculture-ministers-declaration
[3] G20 Agriculture Ministers. 2025, G20 Agriculture Ministers’ Meeting Outcome Document and Chair’s Summary, Cape Town, Western Cape Province, South Africa, 18–19 September 2025, G20. Available at: https://g20.org/g20-media/g20-agriculture-ministers-meeting-outcome-document-and-chairs-summary-cape-town-western-cape-province-south-africa/
[4] Abdikarim Abdullahi Farah et al., “The Multifaceted Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity: A Systematic Literature Review of SCOPUS-Indexed Studies (2015–2024),” Discover Sustainability 6 (1), 2025, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s43621-025-01229-2.
[5] The World Bank, “Climate-Smart Agriculture,” World Bank, February 26, 2024, https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climate-smart-agriculture.
[6] Mimansha Raj and M. Prahadeeswaran, “Revolutionizing Agriculture: A Review of Smart Farming Technologies for a Sustainable Future,” Discov Appl Sci 7, 937, 2025. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42452-025-07561-6#citeas.
[7] Alam Sher et al., “Importance of Regenerative Agriculture: Climate, Soil Health, Biodiversity and Its Socioecological Impact,” Discover Sustainability 5 (1), 2024, https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00662-z.
[8] “Regenerative Agriculture: The Path to Sustainable Production – Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture at the University of São Paulo (CCARBON/USP),” Ccarbon.usp.br, January 15, 2025, https://ccarbon.usp.br/regenerative-agriculture-the-path-to-sustainable-production/.
[9] Florence Akinmeye et al., “What Factors Influence Consumer Attitudes towards Alternative Proteins?,” Food and Humanity, 3 (100349–49), 2024, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949824424001241?via%3Dihub.
[10] Grand View Research, “Plant-Based Meat Market (2024-2030),” Www.grandviewresearch.com, 2023, https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/plant-based-meat-market
[11] World Health Organization, “World Health Assembly Adopts Historic Pandemic Agreement to Make the World More Equitable and Safer from Future Pandemics,” News release, 20 May 2025, https://www.who.int/news/item/20-05-2025-world-health-assembly-adopts-historic-pandemic-agreement-to-make-the-world-more-equitable-and-safer-from-future-pandemics
[12] Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, “Africa’s Health Financing in a New Era,” News item, April 3, 2025, https://africacdc.org/news-item/africas-health-financing-in-a-new-era-april-2025/
[13] Government of South Africa, Department of Health, “Health Hosts 4th G20 Health Working Group Meeting, 10 to 13 June,” Media advisory, June 5, 2025, https://g20.org/g20-media/health-hosts-fourth-g20-health-working-group-meeting/
[14] World Health Organization, “Health at COP30,” https://www.who.int/teams/environment-climate-change-and-health/climate-change-and-health/advocacy-partnerships/talks/health-at-cop30
[15] G20, “G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration,” September 9, 2023, https://www.mea.gov.in/Images/CPV/G20-New-Delhi-Leaders-Declaration.pdf
[16] World Health Organization, “World Health Assembly Endorses Extension of the Global Digital Health Strategy to 2027,” News release, May 23, 2025, https://www.who.int/news/item/23-05-2025-world-health-assembly-endorses-extension-of-the-global-digital-health-strategy-to-2027
[17] World Health Organization, “Global Initiative on Digital Health (GIDH): Events,” accessed October 2025, https://www.who.int/initiatives/gidh/events
[18] World Health Organization, “World Leaders Show Strong Support for Political Declaration on Noncommunicable Diseases and Mental Health,” News release, September 26, 2025, https://www.who.int/news/item/26-09-2025-world-leaders-show-strong-support-for-political-declaration-on-noncommunicable-diseases-and-mental-health
[19] United Nations Human Settlements Programme, World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action, Nairobi, UN-Habitat, 2024, https://unhabitat.org/sites/default/files/2024/11/wcr2024_-_full_report.pdf
[20] World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action
[21] Oxford Economics, Global Cities Index 2025, London, Oxford Economics, May 2025, https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/OEGCI2025.pdf
[22] Nripendra P. Rana, Sunil Luthra, Sachin K. Mangla, Rubina Islam, Sian Roderick, and Yogesh K. Dwivedi, “Barriers to the Development of Smart Cities in Indian Context,” Information Systems Frontiers 21, no. 3 (2019): 503–525, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326706068_Barriers_to_the_Development_of_Smart_Cities_in_Indian_Context
[23] Vinod Shah, “Urban Mobility – Challenges and Solutions,” Urban Transport News, May 24, 2023, https://www.urbantransportnews.com/article/urban-mobility-challenges-and-solutions
[24] CBRE Research, Billions in Transit: Assessing the Impact of Transit Oriented Development on Indian Cities, 2025, https://www.scai.in/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Transit_Oriented_Development.pdf
[25] Promoting circular economy: Maharashtra cabinet approves policy to process & reuse sewage and wastewater for 424 urban local bodies,” Times of India, Mumbai, October 7, 2025, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/promoting-circular-economy-maharashtra-cabinet-approves-policy-to-process-reuse-sewage-and-wastewater-for-424-urban-local-bodies/articleshow/124367357.cms
[26] Stefan Rau, Sponge Cities: Integrating Green and Gray Infrastructure to Build Climate Change Resilience in the People’s Republic of China, ADB Briefs No. 222, Asian Development Bank, November 2022, https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/838386/adb-brief-222-sponge-cities-prc.pdf
[27] Yuan Yuan et al., “Surface urban heat island effects intensify more rapidly in lower income countries,” npj Urban Sustainability 5, Article 11 (2025), https://www.nature.com/articles/s42949-025-00198-9
[28] Camila Tavares P et.al, “A global (South) collective burden: A systematic review of the current state of climate-related hazards in informal settlements”, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Volume 114 (2024), https://www.science-direct.com/science/article/pii/S2212420924007027 .
