ORF Global Quarterly: Disruption and Recalibration

Editors’ Note

The start of 2026 has been marked by disruption, conflict, and profound uncertainty. The capture of Venezuela’s President, Nicolás Maduro, by United States (US) special forces and the subsequent regime change in the country; transatlantic tensions over Greenland; the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA); and joint US-Israel military operations in Iran followed by Tehran’s retaliation in surrounding countries are only a few of the developments that are reshaping the global landscape. Additionally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the war in the Middle East erupted, with its cascading energy shocks, has further underscored the fragility of interconnected commercial systems. While it is too early to predict the long-term consequences of these events, what is certain is that they will influence geopolitics and geoeconomics for decades to come.

The first issue of ORF Global Quarterly, published in January 2026, identified the megatrends likely to define 2026 across six domains. This second issue builds upon that foundation, presenting data-driven analyses of nine megatrends identified under two critical domains: Geopolitics, Security, and Defence and Geoeconomics and Trade. Many of these global dynamics are closely tied to the ongoing developments of the year’s early months, underscoring the need for rigorous and timely scholarship. The impact of these trends on countries in the Global South are particularly significant and must be assessed through a deeper analysis of the underlying causes of the structural, cross-border transformations that are occurring. The collaborative effort that produced this issue—involving ORF’s centres in India, the Middle East, and the United States—provides comprehensive background, empirical data, and granular analyses of the tectonic shifts the world is undergoing.

This issue includes single essays on each of the five trends within Geopolitics, Security, and Defence. Authors were given discretion to determine their focus. For example, the chapter “New Arenas of Great-Power Competition” examines, among the originally identified regions and domains in the first issue, rivalry in the Arctic and explores emerging strategic races in space and undersea-cable technology.

For trends whose underlying causes and potential implications for the Global South are closely interconnected, two essays were commissioned to address them collectively. This applies to the Geoeconomics and Trade chapters that analyse the trends: “Global South in the Crossfire: Strategic Competition and Managed Interdependence”, as well as “Building a Resilient Trade Architecture in the Global South”.

Disruptions will continue—even heighten—in the future. While these disruptions generate uncertainty, they also create opportunities to restructure institutions, recalibrate relationships, and redefine rules that no longer fit the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities of our times. Many countries in the Global South will require partners and multilateral frameworks to achieve equitable leverage in trade, security, technology, energy, and sustainability. Leaders and citizens alike are examining the challenges ahead and exploring how best to position their countries and economies in the emerging landscape. It is our continued hope that this quarterly publication provides valuable insights to guide those strategic choices.

Looking ahead, the third issue of this series will aim to unpack trends identified in the Technology, and Climate and Energy Transitions domains. These thematic areas do not stand alone; their interpretation requires a broader understanding of the geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts explored in this issue.

Read the journal here.

All views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors, and do not represent the institution, its affiliates, or partners.

Sharon Stirling is Chief Operating Officer, ORF America and Director, ORF Global.

Eszter Karacsony is Non-Resident Fellow, ORF Middle East.