Turning Risks into Opportunities

Education, skills, labor, and immigration have historically functioned as critical drivers of economic growth, productivity, social development, and innovation. These domains are closely interlinked and their evolution and prospects should therefore be assessed in relation to one another.

Looking ahead to 2026, geopolitical fragmentation, economic uncertainty, climate crisis, and technological disruption, which have generated global instability, are expected to have long-term consequences for the future of these critical domains. Escalating crises and tectonic shifts threaten progress in human capital development worldwide. Advancements in technology, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), the climate crisis, and the energy transition are reshaping labor markets, creating both redundancies and opportunities. Meanwhile, the rise of anti-immigration populism, stricter compliance frameworks, alongside a growing demand for highly-skilled migrants is collectively transforming international mobility patterns.

Advancements in technology, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), the climate crisis, and the energy transition are reshaping labor markets, creating both redundancies and opportunities. Meanwhile, the rise of anti-immigration populism, stricter compliance frameworks, alongside a growing demand for highlyskilled migrants is collectively transforming international mobility patterns.

The stakes are higher for the Global South, with its large youth populations and significant gaps in education, skills, and employment. Data from the World Economic Forum (2025) shows that rates of youth not in employment, education, or training (NEET) range between 25 to 27 per cent in low and middle-income economies compared to 10 to 17 per cent in high and upper-middle-income economies.^[1] Countries of the Global South are source economies for outward migration and depend on labor mobility for remittances, skills flows, household welfare, and public finances.^[2]

In the midst of rising uncertainty, Global South countries are pursuing their own pathways, seeking to transform risks into opportunities. For example, in education, countries are rapidly embracing AI to leapfrog traditional barriers in access, quality, and personalization.^[3] Similarly, they are investing in green skills; from solar panel installation to conservation management, so that workforces can seize new opportunities in the green transition.^[4] Countries such as India, Vietnam, and Bangladesh have begun converting demographic potential into productivity gains through export diversification and industrial upgrading.^[5],^[6],^[7] They are harnessing multilateral forums to voice their concerns, like the G20 Labour and Employment Minster’ Declaration 2025, under the South African presidency, which calls for stronger labor mobility partnerships between surplus and ageing economies to address demographic asymmetries.^[8]

The Global South is turning to newer models of South– South collaboration and regional partnerships, which are increasingly recognized as strategic mechanisms to jointly address challenges.

Faced with greater challenges, the Global South is turning to newer models of South–South collaboration and regional partnerships, which are increasingly recognized as strategic mechanisms to jointly address challenges. These models tend to be financially prudent, contextually relevant and culturally adapted, and crucially, they help diversify options rather than relying predominantly on Western approaches.

1. Digital Technology and AI Will Expand Access to Education

By 2033, the Global South is projected to account for 1.2 billion youths aged 15–24, yet only 480 million are projected to be enrolled in school, and about 420 million to secure employment, leaving nearly 300 million young people facing severely constrained opportunities.^[9] Equipping them with quality education and relevant skills is crucial. Driven by the rapid expansion of internet access and smartphones, the rise of digital public infrastructure, and post-pandemic shifts in learning, countries across the Global South are utilizing technology to address education gaps.

Reports released in 2025 by UNESCO and Microsoft highlight sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia as key regions where AI-driven learning platforms are being expanded to address fundamental gaps in teacher capacity, instructional materials, and student engagement.^[10],^[11] Joint declarations by forums such as BRICS and ASEAN identify teacher training and ethical use of AI as strategic goals.^[12],^[13] Given the persistent digital divides across regions, ensuring that digital and AI solutions in education systems remain locally adapted and community- rooted will be crucial.

2. Industry 4.0 And Advanced Technical Skills Will Drive the Skilling Agenda

The sharpest divide in labor markets of the future is likely to emerge between workers who can operate in Industry 4.0 environments such as AI, data, advanced manufacturing, and cyber-physical systems, and workers who lack these capabilities. The Future of Jobs Report 2025 projects a net increase of around 170 million jobs this decade, but with over one-fifth of current roles subject to disruption, and the fastest growth in technology and AI-intensive occupations.^[14] The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) notes that high-wage manufacturing and services jobs are expected to increasingly require advanced digital and STEM capabilities, with skills bottlenecks likely to be more pronounced in developing countries.^[15]

The sharpest divide in labor markets of the future is likely to emerge between workers who can operate in Industry 4.0 environments such as AI, data, advanced manufacturing, and cyberphysical systems, and workers who lack these capabilities.

In response, the Global South is increasingly utilizing Global Capability Centres (GCCs) and similar hubs to build Industry 4.0 talent pools. India currently hosts more than half of the world’s GCC, driven by cost advantages and a strong talent base. In 2025, the World Bank’s analysis on AI readiness underscores how advanced digital skills are becoming concentrated in a few emerging hubs.^[16] Echoing this, the 2024 ASEAN–India Joint Statement on Advancing Digital Transformation recognises “the significant role of digital public infrastructure (DPI) in catalysing digital transformation and promoting inclusivity, efficiency, and innovation in public service delivery.”^[17] Similarly, the African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy for Africa (2020–2030) identifies digital skills and human capacity as one of its core pillars.^[18]

The Global South is increasingly utilizing Global Capability Centres (GCCs) and similar hubs to build Industry 4.0 talent pools.

3. Platform Work Will Power Labor Markets but Will Need Responsive Regulation

A majority of young workers in the Global South remain employed in informal, insecure jobs. These concerns are reflected in the UN Population Fund’s 2025 Demographic Outlook and the African Union’s Labour Migration Strategy (2024–2030), which highlight youth employment and mobility governance.^[19],^[20] Platform work and the digital economy function as critical drivers of employment and income growth across the Global South, a trend expected to intensify in 2026. India currently has 7.7–8 million gig workers, projected to reach 23–24 million by 2030.^[21] In Southeast Asia, digital labor platforms have expanded rapidly, boosting household consumption.^[22]

Platform work and the digital economy function as critical drivers of employment and income growth across the Global South, a trend expected to intensify in 2026.

Global frameworks such as the ILO–OECD Global Policy Framework on Decent Work in the Digital Economy (2025)^[23] and the BRICS Declaration on Platform Labour (2024)^[24] underscore fair wages, portable social protection, algorithmic transparency and collective bargaining as essential safeguards. India has introduced new labor codes that provide legal regulation and social security to platform workers.

4. South-South Migration Will Continue to Expand, Driven by Pressures of Climate and Conflict

Countries in the Global South account for at least 40 percent of all international migrants.^[25] However, migration analysis remains constrained by the scarcity of quality data. Persistent conflict, climate stress, and economic fragility remain key drivers pushing people to migrate or seek refuge across borders.^[26] Intra-regional South-South migration has surpassed North-bound flows, especially in Africa, with 15 million Africans residing in other African countries.^[27] Frameworks like the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) play an important role in continental mobility by enabling free movement protocols.^[28] The ASEAN, through declarations and programs promotes safe labor migration.^[29],^[30]

Intra-regional South-South migration has surpassed North-bound flows, especially in Africa, with 15 million Africans residing in other African countries.

Like the North, countries of the Global South have tightened border controls and compliance rules, while promoting localization policies. Climate change represents another significant driver of migration and is expected to displace nearly 143 million people in the region by 2050.^[31] Regional initiatives like the ASEAN Declaration on the Protection of Migrant Workers, Abu Dhabi Dialogue, and Colombo Process promote cooperation on migration, though they remain largely consultative and weakly enforced.^[32],^[33],^[34]

Like the North, countries of the Global South have tightened border controls and compliance rules, while promoting localization policies. Climate change represents another significant driver of migration and is expected to displace nearly 143 million people in the region by 2050.

Conclusion

Looking ahead to 2026, several trends are becoming more evident. In education, digital technology and AI are expected to widen access and personalize learning. In skilling, the advance of Industry 4.0 is expected to increase demand for advanced technical capabilities. In labor markets, platform work is projected to expand further, creating new jobs while underscoring the need for stronger protections for workers. In immigration, South–South mobility is expected to rise further as climate stresses, economic fragility, and conflict intensify. These trends carry both opportunity and risk. By reorienting national priorities to these shifts and aligning these priorities with deeper regional cooperation, the Global South may build shared frameworks that reflect its diverse realities and aspirations.

Endnotes

^[1] World Economic Forum. 2025. The Future of Jobs Report 2025. Geneva: World Economic Forum. https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf

^[2] Ratha, Dilip, Sonia Plaza, and Eung Ju Kim. 2024. “In 2024, Remittance Flows to Low- and Middle-Income Countries Are Expected to Reach $685 Billion, Larger than FDI and ODA Combined.” Blog, December 18, 2024. World Bank. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/peoplemove/in-2024–remittance-flows-to-low–and-middle-income-countries-ar

^[3] Tulsyan, Arpan. 2025. “How AI Can Deliver Quality Learning at Scale.” ORF Expert Speak, September 23, 2025. https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/how-ai-can-deliver-quality-learning-at-scale

^[4] Boston Consulting Group. 2024. Powering Futures: The Green Skilling Opportunity. Boston Consulting Group.
https://web-assets.bcg.com/b9/d3/32793bb54b1fba468efdcdea040a/powering-futures-the-green-skilling-opportunity-1.pdf

^[5] World Bank. 2024. India Development Update: India’s Trade Opportunities in a Changing Global Context. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099513209032434771/pdf/IDU-13d06cd8-0fec-465e-a7e3-8a711ea131b8.pdf

^[6] Chaponnière, Jean-Raphaël, and Jean-Pierre Cling. 2009. “Vietnam’s Export-Led Growth Model and Competition with China.” Économie internationale 118 (2009): 101–130. https://www.cepii.fr/ie/rev118/chaponnierecling.pdf

^[7] World Bank. 2017. “Creating Jobs and Diversifying Exports in Bangladesh.” World Bank Features, November 14, 2017. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2017/11/14/creating-jobs-and-diversifying-exports-in-bangladesh

^[8] G20. 2025. G20 2025 Labour and Employment Ministerial Declaration. August 2025. https://g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/G20-2025-Labour-and-Employment-Ministerial-Declaration.pdf

^[9] World Bank. 2025. Making Labor Markets Work for the Youth: Supporting Effective Youths’ Transitions into the Labor Market. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099021125105022888/pdf/P506693-8b3df9d1-41d8-473e-945c-7d8119cbf29b.pdf

^[10] UNESCO. 2025. “Digital Learning Week.” UNESCO. https://www.unesco.org/en/weeks/digital-learning

^[11] Microsoft. 2025. 2025 AI in Education: A Microsoft Special Report. Microsoft. https://cdn-dynmedia-1.microsoft.com/is/content/microsoftcorp/microsoft/bade/documents/products-and-services/en-us/education/2025-Microsoft-AI-in-Education-Report.pdf

^[12] BRICS. 2025. “BRICS Sign Joint Declaration on Artificial Intelligence in Education, Formalize Technical and Vocational Cooperation Alliance.” June 10, 2025. https://brics.br/en/news/brics-sign-joint-declaration-on-artificial-intelligence-in-education-formalize-technical-and-vocational-cooperation-alliance

^[13] EUinASEAN. 2025. “Empowering ASEAN’s Future Through Inclusive Higher Education.” EUinASEAN, accessed December 3, 2025. https://euinasean.eu/empowering-aseans-future-through-inclusive-higher-education/

^[14]
World Economic Forum. 2025. “The Jobs of the Future — and the Skills You Need to Get Them.” World Economic Forum Stories, January 8, 2025. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/01/future-of-jobs-report-2025-jobs-of-the-future-and-the-skills-you-need-to-get-them/

^[15] United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). 2018. Industry 4.0 – The Opportunities Behind the Challenge. Vienna: UNIDO. https://www.unido.org/sites/default/files/files/2018-11/UNIDO_GC17_Industry40.pdf

^[16] World Bank. 2025. Digital Progress and Trends Report 2025: Strengthening AI Foundations. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/dptr2025-ai-foundations

^[17] ASEAN–India. 2024. ASEAN-India Joint Statement on Advancing Digital Transformation. October 10, 2024. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl%2F38397%2FASEANIndia_Joint_Statement_on_Advancing_Digital_Transformation=

^[18] World Bank. 2025. Digital Progress and Trends Report 2025: Strengthening AI Foundations. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/dptr2025-ai-foundations

^[19] United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). 2025. The Real Fertility Crisis: The Pursuit of Reproductive Agency in a Changing World — 2025 State of World Population (SWP) Report. New York: UNFPA. https://www.unfpa.org/swp2025

^[20] ECOWAS. 2025. ECOWAS Labour Migration Strategy and Action Plan (2025–2035). African Union / ECOWAS. https://www.au.int/en/documents/20250515/ecowas-labour-migration-strategy-and-action-plan-2025-2035 au.int+1

^[21] NITI Aayog. India’s Booming Gig and Platform Economy: Perspectives and Recommendations on the Future of Work. June 2022. Government of India. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2022-06/25th_June_Final_Report_27062022.pdf

^[22] Mohamad, Muhamad Nazrin Farhan, Masturah Ma’in, Nur Azirah Zahida Mohamad Azhar, and Akhmad Akbar Susamto. “The Impact of Digital Economy and Net Export of Goods and Services Towards Employment in the Selected Southeast Asia Countries.” Information Management and Business Review 16, no. 3 (2024): 753–762. https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arimbr/v16y2024i3p753-762.html

^[23] International Labour Organization. Realizing Decent Work in the Platform Economy (Report V(1), ILC.113). Geneva: International Labour Organization, 2024. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/ILC113-V%281%29-%5B-WORKQ-231121-002%5D-Web-EN.pdf

^[24] International Labour & Employment Ministers of BRICS. Declaration of the 14º BRICS Labour and Employment Ministers’ Meeting. Brasília, April 25, 2025. Accessed November 28, 2025. http://brics.br/en/documents/economy-finance-trade-and-infrastructure/declaration-of-the-14o-brics-labour-and-employment-ministers-meeting.pdf/@@download/file

^[25] Schewel, Kerilyn, and Alix Debray. 2023. “Global Trends in South–South Migration.” In The Palgrave Handbook of South–South Migration and Inequality, 153–181. Cham: Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-39814-8_8

^[26] Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). 2025

^[27] ECOWAS. 2025. ECOWAS Labour Migration Strategy and Action Plan (2025–2035).

^[28] Williams, Wendy. 2025. “African Migration Trends to Watch in 2025.” Africa Center for Strategic Studies – Spotlight. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/migration-trends-2025/

^[29] Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). 2018. ASEAN Consensus on the Protection and Promotion of the Rights of Migrant Workers. Jakarta: ASEAN. https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/3.-March-2018-ASEAN-Consensus-on-the-Protection-and-Promotion-of-the-Rights-of-Migrant-Workers.pdf

^[30] ASEAN. 2021. ASEAN Labour Ministers’ (ALM) Work Programme 2021–2025. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat. https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/ALM-Work-Programme-2021-2025-Final-July-2021_rev_.pdf

^[31] Almulhim, Abdulaziz I., et al. 2024. “Climate-Induced Migration in the Global South: An In-Depth Analysis.” npj Climate Action 3 (47). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44168-024-00133-1

^[32] Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). 2023. ASEAN Declaration on the Protection of Migrant Workers’ Family Members in Crisis Situations and Its Guidelines. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat. https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ASEAN_Declaration_on_the_Protection_of_Migrant_Workers_Family_Members-in-Crisis-Situation-and-its-Guidelines.pdf

^[33] Migrant Forum in Asia (MFA). 2025. “Abu Dhabi Dialogue.” MFA. https://mfasia.org/mfa_programs/advocacy/abu-dhabi-dialogue

^[34] International Organization for Migration (IOM). 2018. Colombo Process — Regional Consultative Process on Labour Migration: Brief. IOM. https://www.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl2616/files/2018-07/colombo_process_brief.pdf